Expert Selections // Daily Handicapping Selections from Ellis Park
Race by Race Analysis
Sunday, September 4 – Race Day 30
FIRST – EAVESDROPPING was 2nd in a similar race going just a little longer here last month. It was her first time in for $5,000 claiming price and the shorter distance helps today. STARKEY was two lengths behind her that day as the favorite and also was 2nd in her first try here; she draws the rail though and without much early speed will have to work out a trip. TANAZ won easy against maidens here, then tried a little tougher group of winners than she finds here. She’s had a month off and likely to challenge the top pick for the lead early.
Selections 6-1-4-5
SECOND – SOUGHT breaks from the outside and is fresh, off from the races since March. She has early speed and the only other pace is inside, so should get a nice stalking trip. She’s never raced on grass before, but trainer Tim Glyshaw is 36% with first time on the turf. SHIPLEYS SHAREEN figures as the favorite for the third straight time. She hit the board in both local tries; likely leader out of the gate, but think she comes up short once again. ZIPSTRESS was off two years before returning to run a good 3rd here last month; needed that race and any move forward puts her right there. ALLEVIATE cuts back in distance from recent mile races and will pass a few late.
Selections 9-2-7-6
THIRD – WHITE DIAMOND GIRL has been in the vicinity since moving down to the maiden $5,000 level. She has hit the board last two times sprinting and stretching out to a mile should be on the lead and never look back. Her main competitor looks like ARZANI, first time in at this level, but she hasn’t raced for seven months and don’t think she will last a mile first after the layoff. ALEX’S ALI’s best race was at a mile. ALISE SEE has cashed some minor checks at this level.
Selections 5-4-1-3
FOURTH – GENTLEMANSAPPROVAL has proven he can sprint on the turf, now tries to transfer his recent form to the main track along with a drop into the $5,000 claiming ranks. Throw out his two route races and effort last year on a sloppy track and anything close to his turf sprints wins here from just off the pace. NIMO has already shown he can run on either surface; looks a little cheaper class, but current form is good. PRALLTOWN is the one to catch; wire-to-wire in both his wins and close 2nd in his only start here last time out at this level. BOLT OF LIGHT had all kinds of trouble at the start in his last race, but won two races back.
Selections 2-8-5-6
FIFTH – FRENCH SURPRISE has beaten half the field in three tries so far, including one at this distance on the turf here, where three horses came back to win next start; Jon Court stays on to ride. BARMAID flashed a little run in her only start and drops into a little easier spot. DANDY DEAL and OFFLEE PRETTY both start for trainer Buff Bradley, the meet’s leading trainer. DEAL is a first time starter and PRETTY’S first two turf races would win this.
Selections 10-4-5-7
SIXTH – Ten first time starters here and the one colt that did run pretty well in his only start IN JEOPARDY drew the far outside post. Trainer Bob Holthus hasn’t had a lot of 2yo starters lately, but this one ran well here, after a slow start, to be a clear 3rd behind a colt headed to a stakes race next weekend. Of the first timers, LEAD debuts for trainer Al Stall who is above average with first out runners, especially 2-year olds. GOOD NEW SHOES shows the best morning works of the first timers, followed by SILVER WINGS for leading trainer Buff Bradley.
Selections 12-10-4-5
SEVENTH – COUNT ON GOLD was 2nd here going a little longer three weeks ago. I’ll throw out the dirt race two back, he looks much better on turf and faced some stakes quality horses in the two races at Churchill. FELA KUTI was a couple lengths behind the top pick last race after a win here against maidens. BASCOM HALL hasn’t raced since Churchill but has won at the distance. RIVER CITY GEM got loose on the lead to beat cheaper maidens going short on the turf here last time.
Selections 2-6-1-3
EIGHTH – Not sure why STERLING MADAME shows up here instead of Arlington where she has worked all summer, but her works on the Polytrack have been excellent; trainer is undefeated here this summer, good with first time starters and he and jock Leandro Goncalves hit at over 35%. TRULY DEVOTED showed some ability in her only start last year in New York; trainer Bill Mott pretty good with layoff runners and morning works look like this filly is ready. DAWN LANE is a first time starter for trainer Don Habeeb with excellent morning works. VON ROSENBERG is another first timer, this one for Tom Proctor.
Selections 5-8-4-11
NINTH – SIX STRONG LADY makes her third start here in the identical mile turf race. She has been 2nd each time as the favorite, but like a couple of angles here to move her up. She runs on Lasix for the first time and trainer Ken McPeek is almost 30% with runners first time on the bleeder medication; also gets the rail and saves ground. RUSTICANA has run a couple fast sprints here, 2nd each time and bet well in each race; only questions are surface change and distance. UPTOWN BERTIE debuts for Steve Margolis, having good meet here with steady morning works. The other one to interest me a little is BIOGIO’S GIFT, who drew the outside post; she was 2nd in a turf sprint first out, then had all kinds of trouble last time.
Selections 1-9-3-10
Through Friday, September 2 (248 races)
Top Pick Winners – 93 (38%)
Top Pick In The Money – 176 (71%)
Race by Race Analysis
Monday, September 5 – Race Day 31
FIRST – NOT A LADY looks like a standout here. She’s been 2nd twice here this summer in her only two starts of 2011. She exits a tougher race and could be wire-to-wire or just off the early lead. LEIGHANNA ROSE look like the main threat; may appreciate the extra ½ furlong after two tries shorter when she was gaining ground in the stretch. LADY LANNIS has been inconsistent but fits here and gets Borel. REQUITAL jumped up in her last at 42-1; two races before she was hung out wide.
Selections 7-3-6-1
SECOND – MUD CREEK has run some very nice turf races and stellar record locally with three wines in four starts; Rossi back up to ride and should sit just off two early speed horses, MISS JENNA and DANCING TIGER who both excel on the grass and both have hit the board in all their races at this distance; give a slight edge to MISS JENNA who has shown she can come from just off the pace and has two wins here at Ellis. I picked RED CARPET LADY in both her local starts here. She was 4th as the beaten favorite here last time after a close up 2nd last month; dangerous on the class drop here but see her a couple lengths behind the top two.
Selections 7-3-6-5
THIRD – I picked CANFIELD last time in the identical race three weeks ago and he ran a good 2nd after a slow start from outside post. It was his first try at this level and should sit closer today from inside and graduate. He’ll have to run down TEBOW GATOR who has just missed holding on twice here at this claiming price, making the lead to the stretch both times. THEODORE’S CASH was a couple lengths behind the top pick last time and figures to pressure GATOR up front early. YIELD should be passing a few late for a minor check.
Selections 4-6-10-7
FOURTH – IMPRESSIONIST wires this field with a repeat of her last where she was 2nd at this distance for a higher tag. The question mark is her dirt form, but anything close to her recent turf races gets her clear early and gone. KATY LIED drops a little in class off a turf race, but she won on the main track here last summer and is in for the first time at the $5,000 level. SISTER ANTHONY looks to be provide the top pick company up front early; she was also 2nd going this distance but in a much slower race. Mystery horse is PRINCESS DE ORO who has been inconsistent but best two races were on conventional dirt surface.
Selections 7-3-2-10
FIFTH – Not a real strong opinion here looking at maidens on the turf; only two have been a mile before and neither one was impressive. Trainer Merrill Scherer has two, MAKENZIES MAGIC and I REMEMBER WHEN who both come out of the same last race. MAGIC makes her second start and should improve off that experience when she had a slow start and ran into traffic; interesting though that jock that day, Brian Hernandez ends up on WHEN. DEVILSFROST REPORT beat half the field in her only start and figures to improve.
Selections 2-7-9-10
SIXTH – SNAKE IN THE GRASS ran 2nd in her debut here a couple weeks ago behind a runaway winner who was favored in the race. She had the rail that day, not the best post for a first time starter and gets a better draw here and a little more distance. WORSHIPPER also ran well in her only start, 3rd and she also had the rail. Both figure to move forward with the experience on the main track. ANGEL LOVE’s best race was on a fast main track when she was 2nd as the favorite; 3rd place filly that day came back to win her next start. FLAME RUN makes her first start for trainer Steve Margolis, pretty good percentages with first timers.
Selections 5-6-9-4
SEVENTH – The traditional final day “Twice Around” at 2 ¼ miles is back. FALLING BACK is a more of a turf and synthetic specialist, but his longest race to date at 1 ½ miles was his best and class-wise towers over the field; Borel has ridden him before and should be able to control the pace up front. LANDED ON THE MOON lands at Ellis from the West Coast but looks like he’ll make up ground from way back late. KARMA DISTRACTION comes up from Louisiana for this marathon; best on main track and bred for long distance. The filly GENEOLOGY GIRL takes on the boys and she has run best in her two longest races.
Selections 5-8-6-2
EIGHTH – The highweight SPORTY tries for a three-peat here; he has beaten a couple of these before and also has the best record at this distance. Borel was aboard for both recent wins, including here six weeks and the horse shows good regular morning works since that last win. Veteran TIMELESS FASHION makes his second start after a layoff and should improve off that 4th place effort in a stake at Mountaineer. He’s won twice at this distance on the turf and saves ground from the rail with good tactical speed. SERUNI was an impressive winner here last month from just off the pace. PLUTONIUM actually beat the top pick three races back this summer. He wants the lead, but is drawn to the far outside.
Selections 5-1-8-10
NINTH – GOSPEL HOUR has improved since adding blinkers two starts back. He was 2nd here couple weeks ago and had a ton of trouble during the race. GRANDSTAND was far back early in his first race and made up a lot of ground late. He is likely to improve off that stars, shows a couple good morning works since the race and has a little smaller field here to deal with. Trainer Ken McPeek has two entries here, BIEDERMAN and CARJON CARJON are both first time starters and he has had a couple of them win already at the meet. No real hints from the morning works, but that is typical for him – CARJON has a little better post.
Selections 5-6-4-1
Through Saturday, September 3 (257 races)
Top Pick Winners – 95 (37%)
Top Pick in the Money – 181 (70%)
There is nothing here (yet).
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