Expert Selections
Ellis Park
Race by Race Analysis
Monday, September 6 – Race Day 27
FIRST – J PA gets the rail and has early speed; he has also been in good form all four starts this year, including a local win at this level in his last start and has had a month to recover. STIG’S DEPUTY is a two-time winner here this summer; he tackled a tougher group last time out and was in contention until late and now comes back again with just a week off. EXTREME WARRIOR has been facing much tougher competition with a couple mid-pack finishes. ILIKEWHATIAMDOING returns after a year layoff; good overall turf sprint record.
Selections 1-2-9-7
SECOND – BOLD TWICE was close up 4th a month ago at the condition and distance in his first try with blinkers; should be close to the early pace and looks best with a repeat of that effort. MYBROTHERRON was also 4th in a similar race a few weeks ago; has improved a little in each of his four starts this year. BELL BUCKLE has had lots of chances for elusive first win but has hit the board in half his starts. NIMO is first time starter for trainer that can pop a big price.
Selections 9-1-3-12
THIRD – CABAZON has run a couple good turf races here this summer, including a win and a 2nd and drops in price off his last. MONASHEE GOLD has hit the board in all three local tries, including a win and 2nd last time as the favorite. MINING FOR SILVER makes the trip from Chicago for trainer Larry Rivelli’s first starter at Ellis this summer; the 9 year old has never been out of the money at this distance on the turf. BOULDER TIGER was just a length behind MONASHEE in a similar race last month.
Selections 3-4-8-7
FOURTH – Half the field comes out of the same race run here a few weeks ago. HARRASSMENT was 2nd that day and clear by three lengths of MISS DEWEESE INLET. A couple of Fairmount shippers, MISS BOCEPHUS and HONOR LOIS have a good record at the distance and come out of in-the money finishes in their last start.
Selections 4-2-6-7
FIFTH – K C LEE has been 3rd twice at the meet, including last start at today’s mile distance; she adds blinkers and trainer Larry Lay has been very successful with that equipment change recently. MS ANNA DESTINY has run once at Churchill in June and beat half the field finishing behind a runaway winner who already won again. SASSY’S DREAM led most of the way sprinting in her last and trainer Ken McPeek has good figs (20%) stretching out. CHARM CANDY debuts for trainer who wins high percentage with first timers.
Selections 2-6-8-10
SIXTH – CHEROKEE TRIANGLE hasn’t won in a long time but faced classier company than most of these throughout his career and was stakes quality a few years ago; winner of his recent effort goes in today’s feature. EL ALEMAN was 38-1 last start and missed by only a head; had to need that race after an almost two year layoff. KABOB is much better on turf than his last synthetic track effort shows. PERFECT EDGE had his only win at this distance and was within just a length in two others this year.
Selections 1-3-4-7
SEVENTH – DEDA DID IT can do it here. She makes her third start, finishing 5th both times but not beaten by many lengths. Both those were on turf, but morning works look like she handles dirt and the racing experience alone should help against mostly first time starters. QUEEN BRIANNA shows the best works of the first timers. HOLY KUGA and MARCH MARY both had traffic problems in their only starts.
Selections 6-3-12-10
EIGHTH – WHY STILL WHY has had a couple of tough trips recently but return to his Churchill races look good at this condition. BAILOUT KID should be able to nurse the lead for a long time against this group; comes in off a maiden win here against a full field. WIRECLOUD was the beaten favorite at Fairmount last start, but missed by just a neck in his first try for this $5,000 claiming level. TRICKY PINOCHIO had a wide trip last race after a win here in July.
Selections 9-4-11-1
NINTH – WHERE U AT probably needed last race, his first start since February; made a nice move a tired late but shorter distance today should suit him. HARRISON COUNTY makes his second start and stretches out to a mile from turf sprint when he was a close up 4th. SUN BEAR should be a big price off a poor effort last time but he broke from wide post and tired after two starts making a nice run from off the pace. HARRODS CREEK closed well in his local start.
Selections 10-8-4-12
TENTH – INCA KING is one of the great claims of the last few years and a specialist at today’s distance (8 wins in 10 starts) among fifteen lifetime total grass victories. Also benefits here from versatile running style just off the pace in a race without much early speed. YATE’S BLACK CAT also is proven at the distance and a multiple stakes winner. BRASS HAT, the 9yo veteran has won over $2 million and makes a ‘hometown’ start for trainer Buff Bradley. KENNESSY is an improving horse with a local win.
Selections 8-5-4-9
ELEVENTH – SCARIFF ISLAND has had some time off since last start and shows two good morning workouts; looks a little better in two turn races, but easiest field he has seen yet. FOXTROT OSCAR usually runs well here; was 2nd going a mile last start but probably better going a little shorter like today’s 7 furlongs. PROTECTOROFALLEVIL comes in off a win here at an easier condition but will be a pace factor from the start. A ROGUE SNUCK IN would be the top pick if he draws into the race.
Selections 2-5-1-13